Predictive Modeling for climate-sensitive health outcomes and decision support in Ghana

In 2025 as part of its climate adaptation planning process, the Government of Ghana prioritised malaria, meningitis and food security as key climate-sensitive health outcomes that need urgent attention for key policy decision making and strategic direction. However current eradication and control strategies do not incorporate climate. Our aim is therefore to generate climate-integrated local prediction models to identify high risk areas for immediate action by policy makers and community members. In Work Package 1, we will develop a climate-informed risk prediction framework for malaria using well-defined climate sensitivities. In Work Package 2, we will leverage extant meningitis cohorts and surveillance systems to refine climate sensitivities. And in Work Package 3, we will determine the prevalence and climate sensitivity of mycotoxin food contamination, an emerging climate threat. These work packages and parallel policy and community engagement will directly impact public health policy and provide a scalable model to reduce infectious disease burden in Ghana and beyond. Over the 36 month duration of the project, we will generate impactful evidence and engage with government and civil society stakeholders, and with impacted communities.