Using economic modelling to determine the optimal package of services against non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in South Africa 

In South Africa, the prevalence of non-communicable disease (NCD) is set to increase due to population ageing and improved management of infectious diseases, including HIV.

We will determine the cost of different NCD prevention and treatment interventions in South Africa over a period of 20 years using a mathematical model representing multiple diseases. We will also test different combinations of interventions and methods of delivering them to determine how to optimally allocate resources across NCD interventions. The analysis will include health sector interventions as well as preventive measures for risk factors such as smoking, alcohol intake, diet and physical activity.

The results from the project will improve the current evidence base for decision-making by the South African government and other funders about investment in NCD interventions.