Understanding the impact of global change on animal-borne diseases

The natural world is expected to undergo a significant transformation over the next century, driven by climate change, habitat destruction, human population increases and greater globalisation. Diseases, such as Ebola, Plague and Anthrax, are caught when people come into contact with wild animals and these diseases, called 'zoonoses', are likely to be strongly impacted by global change processes. To better understand this, I will create a dynamic model of seasonal changes to disease-carrying, wild-animal populations and the pathogens they host, to help predict the long- and short-term future risk for a set of high priority zoonoses, including Lassa Fever and West Nile Virus. Then, working alongside the World Health Organisation and Nigeria Centre for Disease Control, I will create a set of practical tools to allow decision-makers to better understand how to prepare disease management frameworks that are robust to upcoming future global change, to help prevent future disease.