Quantifying the influence of wind on mosquito flight and consequences for malaria transmission in southern Malawi

Mosquitoes use the wind to disperse and seek host bloodmeals but the role of wind in the spread of malaria remains unquantified. We will develop and pilot a model, previously designed for wind-borne spread of Bluetongue virus by midges, to quantify the influence of wind-assisted flight in Anopheles mosquitoes on malaria transmission in rural Malawi. The model uses household infection data, wind fields and assumptions on mosquito flight behaviour to determine the most likely source and route of infection. A simple mark-recapture field experiment of local malaria vectors will validate predictions from the model.

The study has the potential to identify areas of high malaria risk, the geographical extent of transmission and predict outbreaks; all of which are crucial for designing cost-effective malaria control programmes. This is the first step to assessing the wider applicability of this approach in malaria and other vector-borne diseases such as dengue and Zika virus.