• Prof Flávio Coelho

  • Dr Luiz Carvalho

    Fundação Getulio Vargas, Brazil

  • Dr Leonardo Bastos

    Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Brazil

  • Dr Leon Alves

  • Miss Marcelle do Monte Gontijo

    Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Brazil

  • Dr Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego

    Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Spain

Project summary

For 40 years, Brazil has witnessed the emergence of diseases transmitted by the mosquito Aedes aegypti: DENV-1 (1986), DENV-2 (1991), DENV-3 (2001), DENV-4 (2010), Chikungunya (2014), and Zika (2015), with severe human and economic costs. Viruses at risk of introduction are Nhong-nhong, Mayaro, and Oropouche. Misdiagnosis is common, and emergence of new viruses can go largely unnoticed. New tools are needed to increase the precision of arbovirus surveillance and control in preparation for climate change.

Mosqlimate is a multi-disease tool with two main goals:

1) estimate probabilities of change in pattern of disease transmission in response to climate and land use changes

2) identify circulating viruses during outbreaks when information is incomplete.

Mosqlimate will detect signs of expansion of arbovirus transmission areas, as well as signs of outbreaks potentially linked to new arboviruses. The tool will flexibly feed on climate and epidemiological data whenever available. Another tool, OviCounter, will fill in the mosquito data gap by providing digital technology to improve the use of eggtraps for mosquito surveillance at large scale.

As output, Mosqlimate will deliver measures of risk to integrate into the Brazilian early warning system 'Infodengue' and its mature community of practice.