Measuring the impact of past, present and future environmental changes on schistosomiasis transmission in southern Malawi

Schistosomiasis, a neglected tropical disease, is highly endemic in Malawi, with nearly half of Malawians at risk of being infected. Spatial patterns in schistosomiasis transmission risk are driven by environment. As the environment changes due to human activities and climate change, there is need to better understand how this affects health of local population. To address this, I will apply geospatial methods to map snail habitat suitability, using covariates obtained from satellites to produce maps for Southern Malawi, and drone imagery to produce detailed maps of smaller area where transmission risk is known to be high. I will use snail survey data over a 30-year period to generate larger scale maps, and to quantify changes in risk over time. Climate change predictions will allow potential changes in future transmission to be estimated. These outputs will provide the schistosomiasis control community with valuable insights into future challenges facing their elimination efforts.