Green spaces, air pollution and climate-related heat mortality in Latin American cities

The health impact of extreme heat events will increase with climate change and rising urban populations. Our interdisciplinary research team will use a mortality database for urban residents in nine Latin American countries to examine the impact of climate change, particularly extreme heat events, on urban population mortality. We will also examine the modifying effect of green space and fine particulate matter on the association between heat events and mortality. 

We will use past data to estimate associations and interactions by age and education in the baseline period of 2001–10, and we will use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model to predict the duration, magnitude and frequency of heat waves in the period 2051–55 . Future population, green space and air pollution scenarios, coupled with the predicted heat events will be used to project future excess mortality by age and education. 

This study will provide evidence of health effects of a climate adaptation and mitigation strategy in the face of future heat waves.