Emergence and global epidemiology of non-polio enteroviruses

Enteroviruses are a major cause of neurological and other illnesses. Recent outbreaks, such as hand-foot-and-mouth disease in Southeast Asia and severe respiratory illness and paralysis associated with enterovirus D68 worldwide, have raised basic and applied questions about the mechanisms determining their emergence and transmission dynamics. First, I will study how population immunity and viral genomic changes contribute to the emergence of new pathogenic enterovirus serotypes and determine their temporal incidence patterns. Second, I will study the geographical range of spread and regional and global patterns of enterovirus movement. I will do this using mathematical models and statistical analysis of case reports, serosurveys and viral sequence data from various settings, including collaborations with China, Malaysia, the UK and the Netherlands. This project offers an opportunity to understand the global epidemiology of enteroviruses and improve their control by ultimately contributing to outbreak preparedness and informing vaccine content and design of vaccination strategies.