Developing an Open-source Software Application for Community Level Cholera Outbreak-Risk Prediction and Feedback through Early Warning Systems (CholOut-EWS): A Pilot Study in Dhaka and Matlab, Bangladesh

Bangladesh is endemic to cholera, accounting for 6.2 per cent burden of 4500 diarrheal deaths annually among 100,000 total diarrheal incidences. Cholera infections have higher transmission risks during floods and droughts associated with increasing global warming and corresponding changes in climate variability.

The Government of Bangladesh is committed to the elimination of cholera by 2030, by strengthening a nationwide diarrhoea disease surveillance system, expanding access to cholera vaccines and strengthening water-sanitation infrastructure. We aim to create an open-source software to model and forecast cholera outbreak risks and communication in Bangladesh through a Graphical User Interface – Early Warning System (GUI-EWS) and tested in two pilot locations during the project.

Outbreak risk predictions through climate-environment-cholera disease modelling techniques and risk communication through appropriately designed EWS will enable timely control of infection transmission and disease management in identified hotspots. Working in close collaboration with local software developers and continuous evaluation-informed revisions, we will strengthen local capacities. The project will leverage collaborations with local governments to ensure end-user preference, maximize usability and aim to embed the open-source software within the Bangladesh Health Management Information System. This will support key public health decision systems for cholera and other infectious diseases associated with the effects of climate change.