Defining pathways of respiratory virus transmission leading to improved intervention strategies

The transmission dynamics of human respiratory viruses are fundamentally linked to the organisational structure of person-to-person contact throughout a population, whether at the household, school, local community or national level. Professor Nokes aims to uncover potential pathways of transmission determined by contact structures, so as to gain greater insight into the emergence, spread, persistence and control of major viral causes of respiratory disease, including influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, coronaviruses and rhinoviruses. Using a framework for surveillance of respiratory infection at all organisational levels throughout the population of Kenya, for the first time temporal-spatial data on four respiratory viruses or virus groups will be coupled to whole-virus genome-sequencing data and data on social contact networks. The aim of this is to predict the most probable transmission routes in the population and to drive mathematical models to be used in exploring the effectiveness of targeted interventions, eg household- or school-based.