Climate-driven vector-borne disease risk assessment


  • Dr Kamil Erguler

    The Cyprus Institute, Cyprus

Project summary

The risk of vector-borne disease emergence will increase in the northern hemisphere in response to a warming climate, which drives the suitable habitats and distribution ranges of many species. Developing predictive, reliable, and widely applicable models of disease risk requires accurate representation of the physiological dependencies of vectors and pathogens.

VEClim aims at vector-borne disease prediction and management by employing data-driven climate-sensitive large-scale mechanistic modelling to represent vector populations and disease transmission. An operational model service will provide access to a vector-pathogen model repository and enable customisation and evaluation of control strategies and future climate scenarios. Short, medium, and long-term predictions of local, regional, and global vector activity and outbreak risk will be delivered through a user-friendly interactive web-based geographic information platform. Model outputs and analyses will be optimised for clarity and utility, targeting wide adoption by scientists, decision makers, and the general public. With the vector-pathogen model repository, comprehensive risk assessment web-platform, and an active user community, VEClim will aid the adoption of predictive tools in integrated management plans for vectors and vector-borne diseases.