Evaluating Policy Implementations TO Predict MEntal health [EPITOME]: a Bayesian hierarchical framework for quasi-experimental designs in longitudinal settings

Mental health problems are a leading cause of disability and death. They are unequally distributed in society, with people who experience more social and economic problems (such as low income, unemployment, or worse housing) being more likely to experience mental health problems. Mental health problems may be affected by Government policies which can impact the lives of millions of people. Recent examples include the rollout of Universal Credit, immigration policies such as the "Hostile Environment" policy (which led to the "Windrush scandal") or the effect of lockdown during COVID-19. Unfortunately, there are currently no scientific tools to test whether these policies affect mental health problems. We will develop new tools to overcome this problem. We will apply these to suitable datasets in the UK collected over the last decade, to see whether different national policies cause changes in levels of depression, anxiety, self-harm, suicide and psychosis in the population.